Indonesia is limiting nickel supply to protect smaller local miners due to the prolonged downturn in the battery metals market, according to French miner Eramet.
The French miner, which operates the world's largest nickel mine in Indonesia's North Maluku province, was given a sales quota 29% lower than expected by Asian countries this year, sending its shares tumbling in October.
The government's restrictions are aimed at protecting local miners from the impact of the global price crash, but have also led to a shift in production to high-grade ores used to make stainless steel. This has led to a reduction in the local supply of battery-grade nickel ore, forcing local smelters, which are key to Indonesia's becoming a major player in electric vehicles, to turn to more expensive imports.
"They want to maintain a good price for ore in the market," Jerome Baudelet, CEO of Eramet Indonesia, said in an interview in Jakarta on Thursday. "They want to protect small local miners."
Nickel is used to make stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries, and nickel prices have been depressed for two consecutive years due to weak demand and strong supply in Indonesia. That has forced some producers in other countries to shut down entirely and is also weighing on smelters in Southeast Asian countries that are already facing high ore prices due to shortages.
Indonesia’s export ban has triggered a smelter construction boom, mostly by Chinese companies, with the country now producing more than half of global nickel. On the mining side, production is highly fragmented, with a large number of small local companies and a handful of large international miners such as Eramet Nickel and Vale.
Jerome Baudelet said that because of sales restrictions, miners are prioritizing sales of high-grade ores typically used in stainless steel production. That’s at the expense of lower-grade limonite, which is typically converted into battery-grade nickel in high-pressure acid leaching facilities.
Jerome Baudelet said those plants are key to Indonesia becoming a major player in electric vehicles, but they are being forced to import that ore at very high costs.
Eramet can apply for a higher sales quota next year, which could ease tightness in the ore market. That could become more pressing as the country continues to increase its processing capacity.
Much will depend on the country’s new government’s attitude toward the nickel industry. President Prabowo Subianto, who took office last month, has pledged to continue his predecessor’s policies to move processing of minerals such as nickel to the country.
The former general recently concluded a visit to the United States that included a meeting with President Joe Biden and a call with President-elect Donald Trump. Indonesia has been pressing the U.S. to make electric vehicles containing its nickel eligible for subsidies provided by the Inflation Reduction Act.
Whether the Trump administration will be more willing to accept a deal on that front remains to be seen, especially given his repeated desire to repeal large parts of the IRA. But Baudelet said the Southeast Asian nation’s growing dominance of the nickel market could eventually force the U.S. to act.
“Look at Indonesia, it’s going to be 70% of global production in the next five to 10 years,” he said. “It’s going to be a challenge to get competitive nickel if you don’t want to source from Indonesia.”
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