Why Has Indonesia Tsingshan's Overseas Orders Suddenly Soared So Dramaticall

Recently, China's stainless steel market has experienced significant volatility, but the overseas market tells a different story—there are reports that Indonesia Tsingshan is planning to adjust its export prices again, with an estimated increase of 30-40 USD/ton. So, what exactly is behind Indonesia Tsingshan's strong performance in the overseas market? Combining changes in the global economic environment and corporate strategy adjustments, this article delves into the multiple driving forces behind this phenomenon.

1. Contraction in Overseas Supply, Indonesia Becomes the "Alternative Supply Hub"
   The global stainless steel supply chain is undergoing structural adjustments. In mainland China, India's new BIS regulations have almost entirely blocked the export of Chinese stainless steel finished products to India, while the joint notice from five Chinese authorities halting the "export under false declaration" model has completely sealed off traditional gray-channel export pathways. This has led to an expansion of supply gaps in overseas markets, particularly in the finished product sector.

At the same time, the EU has implemented anti-dumping duties on stainless steel finished products from Indonesia but maintains relatively low tariffs on semi-finished products like slabs, creating a "dual-track" mechanism.

The "double standards" of European steel mills have exacerbated this trend: on one hand, they lobby governments to maintain high tariffs restricting imported finished products, while on the other hand, they heavily purchase low-priced slabs from Indonesia to sustain high profits for their own rolling mills. For example, slabs can easily circumvent anti-dumping reviews through transit via third countries or simple processing. Investigations reveal that Indonesia Tsingshan has shifted to a core strategy of exporting slabs, driving its comprehensive efforts in the Eurasian market.

2. Strong Order Intake, "Supply Falls Short of Demand" for October Orders
   After a brief downturn in the second quarter, Indonesia Tsingshan has seen an explosive surge in demand. Starting in the third quarter, as steel mills in Asia and Europe resumed procurement, order volumes far exceeded expectations. Stainless steel black skin and billets have become the main products, with order volumes returning to levels seen in the first quarter of this year. Sales to Taiwan have reached over 100,000 tons per month, and overall export performance has shaken off the weakness of the previous three to four months.

The core driver lies in Indonesia Tsingshan's flexible strategy: avoiding the EU's high tariff barriers on finished products by focusing on exporting semi-finished slabs. This not only meets the rolling demands of European mills but has also attracted steel mills with resurgent demand to place large orders. It is reported that Indonesia Tsingshan's hot-rolling production lines are currently operating at full capacity, and October order plans still cannot meet the incremental demand from customers. Some European manufacturers are even seeking additional purchase volumes. This situation of "production lines clearing out, supply falling short of demand" has given Indonesia Tsingshan greater control over pricing.

3. Bottoming Out and Cycle Initiation
   In June, Indonesia Tsingshan's overseas order volume hit a record low, reflecting the "broken chain" dilemma in the global stainless steel industry's mid-to-downstream sectors: finished product processing was constrained by raw material shortages, and traders held funds on the sidelines, waiting for bottom signals.

Meanwhile, stainless steel product prices fell to the second-lowest point in history (only higher than during the extreme volatility of 2020), plunging the market into a vicious cycle of "the more prices fall, the more hesitant buyers become."

This deadlock was forcefully broken in July—when LME nickel prices stabilized above the key level of 15,000 USD/ton, coupled with downstream inventory depletion, Indonesia Tsingshan initiated a "price anchoring" strategy: hot-rolled slab quotes rebounded by over 50 USD/ton in a single month.

Price increases following a deep decline no longer met resistance but instead became the "starting gun" for procurement: European rolling mills rushed to order slabs to mitigate future cost risks, while Asian customers, driven by "fear of rising prices," collectively released pent-up demand. This rapid reversal from "freezing point" to "boiling point" is the underlying momentum behind the current supply-demand imbalance.

4. Raw Material Costs Support Price Hikes and Order Logic
   Expectations of price increases have further fueled active procurement—current raw material prices show a "stable with support" trend: nickel pig iron prices have stabilized at 925-955 RMB/nickel point, LME nickel prices are holding firm at 15,000 USD/ton, and Shanghai nickel prices remain high at over 120,000 RMB/ton, providing solid cost support for Indonesia Tsingshan's export price hikes.

In terms of price adjustments, Indonesia Tsingshan has cumulatively raised export quotes by 110 USD/ton since June and plans a further increase of 30-40 USD/ton in August to alleviate the current supply-demand imbalance. This "rigidity" in pricing essentially reflects the "true demand side" of the global stainless steel market:

Compared to China's domestic market, where futures gains largely reflect production cut expectations, spot prices are the direct indicator of actual supply-demand dynamics. Indonesia Tsingshan, through timely adjustments to its global market strategy (such as substituting slab exports for finished products and focusing on regional demand), has not only overcome the previous frustrating situation of production line clearance but has also achieved a transformation in order intake capability and pricing power, "becoming tougher."

In summary, the surge in Indonesia Tsingshan's overseas orders is not accidental but the result of global policy changes and its own adaptive strategies. In the short term, the company has already laid out orders for October, and price increases are expected to continue, further expanding its share of the semi-finished product market in Europe and Asia. However, challenges remain: potential EU tariff reviews and fluctuations in international metal prices could reshape the competitive landscape.

Overall, Indonesia Tsingshan's success highlights the importance of flexibility in an era of trade barriers—when other suppliers are constrained, shifting to semi-finished product exports has become a breakthrough strategy, driving the gradual eastward shift of the stainless steel industry's center of gravity. In the future, the industry must remain vigilant about the risks of unfair competition arising from policy "double standards." This website will continue to track the latest developments.